Never Give a Dictator a Second Chance

I’ll leave you to speculate why I’m thinking about this now. It’s what I learned after watching Hugo Chavez in Venezuela. He, like a number of dictators, tried to seize power, failed, and succeeded the second time around.

Hug Chavez attempted a coup in Venezuela in 1992 and was imprisoned. From inside his jail, he famously said he had only failed “for now.” When he was released in 1994 he pursued democratic power by promising to end corruption, conquer poverty, and tear apart Venezuela’s old political system. He won a national election and became president in 1999. I was covering Venezuela for National Bank of Canada at that time. Venezuela had suffered so many years of dictatorship and corrupt politics that I thought he might do some good. Oil revenues financed his initiatives and he was initially very popular.

Chavez continually amassed power throughout his three terms in office. He changed the legislature to fill it with supporters, re-wrote the constitution, abolished presidential term limits, and trampled human rights. He also nationalized major companies and partnered with Russia and China, which turned the U.S. against him. Chavez reacted by going to the U.N. and calling George W. Bush “the devil.” But eventually crime, poverty, and inflation rose and his popularity slipped. So what did he do? He manipulated elections to stay in power.

The one thing Hugo Chavez couldn’t control was cancer. He had several surgeries in Cuba and still won the election of 2012. Chavez died in 2013, but his oppressive and destructive policies lived on.

His successor, Nicolas Maduro, crushed opposition and cheated his way to wins in subsequent elections. He is backed by a coterie of corrupt generals. Today Venezuela has huge oil reserves alongside terrible inflation, a depression, and food shortages. More than 7 million citizens have fled the country (almost 25% of the population).

Did this happen because Hugo Chavez learned from his failures and got a second chance? Here are a few examples of other dictators who got a second chance.

Adolf Hitler. He attempted a coup in 1923 and was sent to prison. When released, he used politics to become chancellor and eventually consolidated power and became dictator.

Fidel Castro. In 1953, Castro led an attack to overthrow the Batista government. The attack failed, and Castro was imprisoned. After his release, Castro regrouped and launched guerrilla warfare, culminating him seizing of power in 1959.

Benito Mussolini. Mussolini attempted to gain political control through socialist and radical movements. That failed and he shifted to a nationalist and fascist platform. When he marched on Rome, King Victor Emmanuel III had to appoint him as Prime Minister, which allowed him to establish a dictatorship.

Muammar Gaddafi. Early in his military career, Gaddafi plotted against the Libyan monarchy but failed to seize power. Then in 1969, Gaddafi and a group of officers carried out a coup against King Idris to establish his rule.

Joseph Stalin. Stalin initially failed to consolidate control during the early years of the Bolshevik Revolution and was sidelined by other leaders like Lenin and Trotsky. After Lenin’s death, Stalin outmaneuvered his rivals and became a dictator.

Do these examples have relevance today?